Climate Change & Extreme Weather Where is worst affected and least able to adapt?

With COP26 starting in Glasgow today, it is timely to consider the extreme weather events across the world that have already had devastating consequences. These events are happening across all continents with increasing frequency and low-income countries find it hardest to adapt.

In 2019 (latest figures)  Mozambique, Zimbabwe and the Bahamas were found to be  the countries most affected by the impacts of extreme weather events, in 2018 it was Japan, the Philippines and Germany and averaged across 2000-2019 it was Puerto Rico, Myanmar and Haiti. Germanwatch, which made these findings in their Global Climate Risk Index also calculates there were over 475,000 deaths globally as a direct result of over 11,000 extreme weather events since 2000. Though some regions are worse affected, and some less able to cope for economic or political reasons, extreme weather, with serious consequences, occurs across all continents.

The map below shows which countries had the highest percentage of the population affected by droughts, floods and extreme temperatures, averaged across 1990-2009 (latest World Bank data). China, India, Australia and parts of Africa (notably Niger, Eritrea, Kenya and Malawi) appear darker, indicating that they have a higher proportion of people displaced, evacuated, injured, left homeless or requiring immediate assistance following a natural disaster. Over one in a hundred people in the majority of countries are affected in this way.

Map to show percentage of population affected by droughts, floods and extreme temperatures

Averaged across 1990-2009 (World Bank data)

There continues to be a rhetoric in relation to climate change that we can win if we work together and try hard enough. In a Sky News interview yesterday, Boris Johnson claimed the whole of humanity is “in the ring”  (though he conceded that climate change is not going to be stopped). When we consider the impacts already experienced across every continent, and see predictions of further catastrophe that is already unavoidable, it is hard to imagine what winning would look like. In a recent NPR Hidden Brain podcast, Shankar Vedantam argues that the battle against climate change is more like Dunkirk than Normandy. We have already lost, we need to manage casualties.

This is not to say that all is negative. Through global responses to climate change there have been, and will be further, technological advances, improvements to air quality, job creation as new industries take off and a greater understanding of our ecosystem and our relationship with the natural world. The key point is that support for those experiencing extreme weather events must not be side-lined by carbon reduction (the split is currently 20/80 between funds for adapting to climate impacts and cutting carbon emissions, according to the OECD). Extreme weather is much harder to manage in low-income countries, with less robust infrastructure, greater reliance on agriculture and inability to adapt. An IIED report this month has found that “the world’s least-resourced communities and countries are increasingly unable to adapt to or absorb worsening climate impacts”. 

So, while we should celebrate our advancements and ability to cut carbon, and strive to go further, we cannot ignore what is already happening, and those who need support today.