Interview with Stijn Broecke, Head of the OECD's Future of Work Initiative and Senior Economist

Stijn Broecke is a senior economist in the Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Directorate of the OECD, where he leads the organisation’s Future of Work Initiative. He was co-editor and co-author of the OECD Employment Outlook 2019, which focused on the Future of Work. Stijn holds a PhD in the Economics of Education from the University of London and an MPhil from the University of Cambridge.

Here he discusses how technology is changing the world of work and what employers, educators and policymakers can do to manage the transition to automation in new areas.

How are do you see technology and digitalisation changing the world of work?

“The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc...”

The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc. technology has changed what tasks and jobs people do, who carries them out, what skills are required, how well people are remunerated, and the quality of jobs.

At the present moment, digitalisation is profoundly changing the world of work. Robots and other related technologies have already had an important impact on the labour market and, with the advent of newer technologies, like Artificial Intelligence (AI), these trends are expected to continue, although the exact nature of the impact might be different from what happened under previous technological revolutions.

At the OECD, we have estimated that 14% of jobs in OECD countries are at high risk of automation, and that another third of jobs will undergo significant change as a large share of the tasks involved will be automated as well. At the same time, technologies create new jobs and also boost productivity. On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.

New technologies have also enabled the rise of the platform economy, and the emergence of new business models and forms of work. Some of these have enabled individuals and businesses to tap into new sources of flexibility. However, there are also important concerns around job quality in some of these occupations.

How will the changing nature of work impact society? Will it benefit the already wealthy more than the less well off? How should we use technology to drive the changes we want and avoid undesired consequences?

“On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.”

While the OECD does not expect the overall number of jobs to decline dramatically in the short-run, there will be important transitions to undergo as jobs disappear in some sectors and occupations, while new ones appear elsewhere.

This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others. At the same time, many of the new jobs are likely to benefit the high-skilled and those living in urban areas.

“This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others.”

If we do not help those who lose out from digitalisation grab the opportunities that arise, then we risk seeing widening disparities in the labour market, and in society more widely.

Of course, technology itself offers opportunities that need to be grabbed and that could help those left behind benefit from the digital transformation. Platform work, for instance, can lower barriers to employment for some workers. The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind. And technologies like exoskeletons and smart wear can help increase the productivity of lower-skilled workers.

What can be done by employers, educators and policymakers to manage the transition to automation in new areas?

In the OECD Employment Outlook 2019 we analysed in detail how labour markets are changing, and what implications this has for policy in the areas of social protection, training, and how we regulate the labour market.

“The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind.”

We have evidence that transitions in the labour market are becoming more frequent and policy makers need to ensure that they help both firms and individuals manage these transitions as smoothly as possible. Adequate social protection is critical in this respect, because it helps people bridge these transitions, and prevents them from falling into poverty while they look for a new job. But in a world where non-standard forms of work, like temporary contracts and own-account work, are on the rise (at least in some countries), providing adequate social protection is not always easy, given that these forms of work have often been less well protected. A real challenge for policy makers is to think innovatively about how social protection might be extended to everyone, regardless of contract type.

Employers and workers also have an important role to play in making the transition to a new world of work as smooth as possible. Through effective social dialogue, they can jointly decide on what future they want. Nothing is inevitable about technology and its adoption. Together, employers and workers can choose what technologies get adopted, for what purpose, and what compensation and help might be available for those who are left behind.

What skills are required as some functions are automated and tech brings new possibilities? How might education systems and approaches to adult learning respond to this?

Training and adult learning are the other crucial ingredient needed to ensure that transitions are managed effectively. The new jobs that are emerging often require both different and higher skills than those that were needed in the jobs that are disappearing. Across OECD countries, we have observed a process of job polarisation – whereby the share of middle-skill jobs has been declining, while the share of high-skill jobs (and, to a lesser extent, the share of low-skill jobs) have been rising. Also, soft skills, those that are less likely to be automated by robots and AI, are becoming more and more important in the labour market.

“Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning.”

Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning. However, many of the workers who are most likely to be affected by the changes that are occurring in the labour market – the low-skilled and those in non-standard forms of work – are those least likely to participate in training. A forty percentage point gap exists between the high-skilled and the low-skilled in terms of participation in training.

The real challenge for policy makers and education systems is therefore to reach out to those individuals who have traditionally participated less in education and training. How can training be made attractive to them, and what barriers – financial or others – need to be overcome in order to ensure that all individuals, but especially those that have most to gain from it, participate in adult learning?

To find out more see the OECD Employment Outlook 2019.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.