Potential and pitfalls – will there be a working from home revolution?

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, around 5% of the UK working population worked from home most of the time (it is roughly the same in the US), and around three quarters had never worked from home. Now, almost everyone who is able to, is doing so all of the time. The transformation has been incredible in terms of scale and speed and there are numerous reports that it was actually easier than predicted, and has ushered in unexpected benefits.

Of course there are considerable financial savings available if ultimately less office space is required. Other benefits beyond not having to tolerate the cycling shorts being aired at the desk next to yours and pranks à la Tim from The Office include the ability to focus, greater productivity (in certain conditions), managerial focus on output rather than presenteeism and greater flexibility to support childcare (not, of course, as in the current situation where there is none). Avoiding the commute is another huge benefit, not only for the individual forced into moments of uncharacteristic aggression in order to squeeze their way onto a Central Line train or wasting hours staring at the back of the car in front, hoping to summon some supernatural force that might edge it forward, but also in terms of environmental benefits. A study has shown that taking into account increased usage at home, working from home reduces overall energy consumption. Longer-term these changes have the potential to ease some of the other challenges of high density living, not least the housing shortage.  The questions to be asked now are will home working continue post-COVID-19 crisis, what is at stake if the office is no more, and what is the right long-term approach to home-working.          

“nearly half were considering making remote work a permanent option”

A survey taken in early April 2020 found that 20 per cent of CFOs plan to make one in five previously on-site positions permanently remote post COVID-19, with three quarters saying one in twenty.  A different survey of CFOs globally showed that by mid-May, nearly half were considering making remote work a permanent option where feasible, with nearly three quarters saying the flexibility created by the current situation would prove useful to the business in the long run.  Only a third envisaged productivity loss over the next month because of a lack of remote work capabilities. Interestingly, this had decreased from 52 per cent when the same question was asked in late March which suggests that as equipment is being set up and new working systems established, productivity concerns are reducing. A number of high profile companies have announced their plans to enable more working from home post-virus including Facebook, Twitter, Barclays, Mondelez and Goldman Sachs. WPP have announced that one in ten people who used to come in to work in their China office are continuing to work remotely post-lockdown. So it seems clear that we should expect the number of home-workers to increase, perhaps significantly.

“For many, their social lives are at work with over half of people at work having at least one close friend there, indeed one in every five married couples met through work.”

However, there is plenty at stake. The corporate rental market and all the provisions such as gyms, restaurants and bars established to accommodate office workers could face serious challenges. From the business perspective, there will be concerns around the ability to keep track of progress, for workers to feel part of a team and motivated by this and to spot problems when they emerge. There is a potential loss of ideas that emerge through spontaneous and informal conversations. Individuals also have a lot to lose. For many, their social lives are at work with over half of people at work having at least one close friend there, indeed one in every five married couples met through work (though this number is declining). The importance of social interaction is well established, thus there is the potential for home working to lead to an increase in loneliness and depression beyond the pandemic. Another really significant challenge is addressing the inequalities that are accentuated by this way of working. Who is likely to do their best work sat in bed, surrounded by housemates, with constant family interruptions, with clunky internet or worse in an environment where they feel threatened or anxious? Young people, who have been worst hit employment-wise by the crisis are also likely to feel more negative effects from a work from home revolution. Mark Read, Chief Executive of marketing and advertising giant WPP has noted  “Junior employees and those in shared accommodation find homeworking much more difficult than senior executives with houses and gardens.” As well as the space issue, junior staff are likely to learn more from others around them in an office, be that understanding the appropriate phone manner or being able to ask the ‘silly question’ they may feel uncomfortable writing as an email. Another challenge is the long debated blurring of the work/ home divide and what this means when working from home. Will staff be able to switch off? A study has shown that though the ability to work from home is seen as a work benefit by employees, it can lead to “greater intrusion of work into family life and for added work-related stress”.

“Junior employees and those in shared accommodation find homeworking much more difficult than senior executives with houses and gardens.”

— Mark Read, CEO, WPP

“the benefits of working from home are much greater in those who have chosen to do so”

As the work from home recommendation is lifted, organisations will take their decisions on their new approach to working from home. The right response will depend on sector, location, size and demographic of employees, and will require a careful balancing act. Although work from home policies will vary across organisations, it seems that there are a few fundamentals that should be maintained.  There should be some regular face to face contact where feasible. Thorben Albrecht, a member of the ILO Global Commission for the Future of Work said in a recent interview that companies need to adjust their way of remote working after crisis, pointing to the importance of having face to face meetings. There should be an option to work at an office for those whose home conditions are not conducive to good work, for whatever reason, and no penalties for taking this option. Perhaps intuitively, but also supported by a Stanford study, the benefits of working from home are much greater in those who have chosen to do so.  Steps should be taken to ensure right equipment is made available - from the internet connection (in some areas this will need government support) to the desk and chair that do not necessitate trips to the chiropractor and the right security to ensure data protection compliance so that the company’s systems are not left vulnerable. Taking security seriously is one of the key recommendations of a McKinsey report reflecting on lessons learnt in China. 

There are numerous benefits to individuals, companies and society available by increasing remote working, but it is important that a considered approach is taken to avoid some of the pitfalls.   

Interview with Ksenia Zheltoukhova, Director of Research Operations, NESTA

Ksenia is Director of Research Operations at NESTA, a non profit innovation foundation. Previously she led on Research and Thought Leadership at CIPD.

Here she discusses how labour markets are likely to develop, preparedness to reskill and the consequences of the coronavirus on working patterns.

What types of jobs are at risk because of automation?

The past few years have seen both excitement about the jobs created by the advances in technology, as well as a growing fear of job loss for many. Nesta research shows that automation is more likely to radically change what people do in jobs rather than replace work completely.

Our Future of Skills research predicts that around one-tenth of the workforce are in occupations that are likely to grow as a percentage of the workforce and around one-fifth are in occupations that will likely shrink.  

“Education, healthcare, and wider public sector occupations are likely to grow.”

Education, healthcare, and wider public sector occupations are likely to grow while some low-skilled jobs, in fields like construction and agriculture, are less likely to suffer poor labour market outcomes than has been assumed in the past. Workers at risk of automation specifically include waiters and waitresses, shelf fillers, retail sales staff, farm workers and cleaners.    

What can be done to support those who need to reskill as more functions are automated and what types of opportunities are opening up?

Raising awareness of the need to reskill is critical: Nesta’s survey shows that two in three workers (68%) believe it is unlikely that their current job role will be automated in the next 10 years.  

The quality of career information, advice and guidance should be improved: career advisors should use data-driven insights to match individuals’ skills with work opportunities, and point people to jobs less susceptible to automation.

“People in low-paid work often don’t have the time, motivation or money to undertake training.”

People should be supported to keep learning: Nesta’s review of evidence shows that people in low-paid work often don’t have the time, motivation or money to undertake training. Learning providers should take into account barriers to learning and an understanding of people’s motivations to learn, and personalise learning content and delivery.    

How can young people be best prepared for a world of work that is constantly changing?  

“Strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises.”

Strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises. The skills forecast to be in higher future demand include social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgment, and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality, and oral expression are forecast to increase in demand.  

We have developed a sample of Six Jobs for 2030 as a flavour of the types of skills that will be in demand.

Responses to the coronavirus pandemic have caused significant disruption to working practices in the UK, with those that are able to, working from home, and many not able to work at all. What might the long term impact of this be?

Some have speculated that the pandemic will lead to permanent changes in working patterns, with working from home, and flexible working more broadly, becoming more of a norm in businesses that haven’t adopted this yet.  

“The pandemic is deepening the consequences of social and economic inequality.”

But, the pandemic is deepening the consequences of social and economic inequality. While many highly-skilled employees have the opportunity to work remotely or from home, many low-skilled employees do not have this option. This will impact individuals’ ability to hold on to their jobs, as well as creating more negative effects for sectors and regions that have higher proportion of roles that can’t be delivered from home.

 

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Interview with Thorben Albrecht, Member, ILO Global Commission for the Future of Work

Thorben Albrecht is an expert on the future of work and digital transformation and has been a member of the International Labour Organization’s Global Commission on the Future of Work since 2017. He has been Permanent State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Germany and Federal Manager Social Democratic Party of Germany.

Here he discusses remote working trends and best approaches.

“ remote work is now being introduced in a time of crisis and in a very extreme form with no personal meetings possible whatsoever. This could well have the opposite effect after the crisis if companies do not adjust their “way of remote work” to a more intelligent, human and flexible style.”

What trends have been driving the move toward more working from home over the past 10 years?  

New and advanced technologies have made this trend possible, but the main drivers have been new flexibility-needs concerning time and place of both employers and employees. Other aspects like the reduction of the time and pollution of commuting or handling restructuring have been adding to this.     

What impact does remote working have on productivity?  

There is no general positive or negative effect on productivity. Productivity can be increased when remote work is applied in an intelligent way. It should not be substituting but complementing work with face-to-face-exchange. Distraction and stress should be reduced and the well-being of employees increased compared to in-office-work (but this is not always the case). Only then productivity-gains are possible.    

To what extent do you expect the way people are forced to work during the coronavirus pandemic to have long lasting effects?  

I hope that reservations against remote work are reduced where they still exist with employers and employees. And that investments into technology are done and still used after the situation is back to normal. But at the same time, remote work is now being introduced in a time of crisis and in a very extreme form with no personal meetings possible whatsoever. This could well have the opposite effect after the crisis if companies do not adjust their "way of remote work" to a more intelligent, human and flexible style.    

Is there an inbuilt inequality in a drive to work from home, as not everyone has a quiet, stress free home with sufficient broadband provision and space to work?  How does this weigh up against enabling a more diversified workforce through greater flexibility?  

The flexibility-needs of employers are not always in line with those of employees. And between employees the needs and possibilities are also very diverse. Thus only models of remote work that align the different needs through mechanisms of negotiations and compromise will be successful and increase diversity without increasing inequalities.    

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Interview with Emma Colbeck, Co-founder, Playground

Emma Colbeck is co-founder, with Jess Knowles, of Playground, an environmentally conscious streetwear brand for adults and children. She has 15 years’ experience in media and branding for fashion and lifestyle titles from Hearst Magazines to The Guardian.

Here she discusses what motivated her to start her own business, its values and learning along the way.

What gave you the incentive to start your own business? 

“I wanted to create something I love, for myself, but also to set an example to the children.”

Having my first child broke the cycle of full time work, which gave me the incentive to consider an alternative. The obvious benefit of working for yourself with young children is that you can have the flexibility to be around for them when needed. I started developing ideas and skills that would help me set up my own business, then after my second child was old enough to go to nursery, I went ahead. I had found a business partner with children of a similar age and complementary experience and we were both excited about the idea of Playground.

We felt there was a lack of exciting brands aimed at parents. It was as if once you had children, clothes were meant to be more practical than stylish. Of course, we dressed more casually on the playground than in the office, so this is where the idea of streetwear for parents and children emerged. This is Playground.

I wanted to create something I love, for myself, but also to set an example to the children. It is risky, but possibilities open up when you have your own business. I will really own my achievements, in a way not possible working for someone else. Long term, there is also the possibility to make more money than from the incremental rise of full time work.

What personality traits does starting your own business draw on? 

You need to be decisive and confident in your decision making. I have also found it necessary to wear lots of different hats. You flip between numerous roles within the business all the time. You need to be good at planning and agile enough to work across the roles, from creative, to accounts, to marketing. It is also important to be strategic and have a yearly plan.

Did you feel you had the right skills to set up a business or where did you go to boost them?   

“You need to be decisive and confident in your decision making. ”

My background was in project management where I picked up a lot of the skills necessary to start a business. However, there were many I have had to learn, and am still learning. Before starting my own business, I did a Digital Marketing course at General Assembly (which now I have started my business, feel I need to redo!) and I did a six months hands-on training in Social Media Strategy and Management with Digital Mums. General Assembly specialize in upskilling people in their current roles, or those looking to make career transitions. They focus on skills that are really in demand such as tech, data, design and business. Digital Mums provides career-focused courses in social media management to women on maternity leave, aimed at leading on to more flexible roles.

How important is sustainability to your business? 

“Sustainability is at the core of our business. Every decision we make, we consider sustainability.”

Sustainability is at the core of our business. Every decision we make, we consider sustainability. We only work with organic cotton and are careful with every aspect of the product, even how they are packaged; recycled paper is used in everything from the tissue paper to the mailers and even the tape. All our product materials are as sustainable as the market allows. We do this because it is increasingly important for our customers and as it is the right thing to do, especially with our children in mind. We are looking of ways to tap into reuse as well. All our shipping is carbon neutral. Sustainability is an area we constantly strive to improve within the business. 

What is the next big challenge for Playground?

We have had a fantastic response to our launch in late 2019. It feels like there is a real buzz and we have been thrilled with the press coverage, which includes being featured in The Times, the Evening Standard Magazine and Grazia. The next biggest challenge, however, is converting this brand awareness into increased sales.

To find out more see the Playground website.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Photography by Buzz White.

Interview with Stijn Broecke, Head of the OECD's Future of Work Initiative and Senior Economist

Stijn Broecke is a senior economist in the Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Directorate of the OECD, where he leads the organisation’s Future of Work Initiative. He was co-editor and co-author of the OECD Employment Outlook 2019, which focused on the Future of Work. Stijn holds a PhD in the Economics of Education from the University of London and an MPhil from the University of Cambridge.

Here he discusses how technology is changing the world of work and what employers, educators and policymakers can do to manage the transition to automation in new areas.

How are do you see technology and digitalisation changing the world of work?

“The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc...”

The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc. technology has changed what tasks and jobs people do, who carries them out, what skills are required, how well people are remunerated, and the quality of jobs.

At the present moment, digitalisation is profoundly changing the world of work. Robots and other related technologies have already had an important impact on the labour market and, with the advent of newer technologies, like Artificial Intelligence (AI), these trends are expected to continue, although the exact nature of the impact might be different from what happened under previous technological revolutions.

At the OECD, we have estimated that 14% of jobs in OECD countries are at high risk of automation, and that another third of jobs will undergo significant change as a large share of the tasks involved will be automated as well. At the same time, technologies create new jobs and also boost productivity. On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.

New technologies have also enabled the rise of the platform economy, and the emergence of new business models and forms of work. Some of these have enabled individuals and businesses to tap into new sources of flexibility. However, there are also important concerns around job quality in some of these occupations.

How will the changing nature of work impact society? Will it benefit the already wealthy more than the less well off? How should we use technology to drive the changes we want and avoid undesired consequences?

“On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.”

While the OECD does not expect the overall number of jobs to decline dramatically in the short-run, there will be important transitions to undergo as jobs disappear in some sectors and occupations, while new ones appear elsewhere.

This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others. At the same time, many of the new jobs are likely to benefit the high-skilled and those living in urban areas.

“This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others.”

If we do not help those who lose out from digitalisation grab the opportunities that arise, then we risk seeing widening disparities in the labour market, and in society more widely.

Of course, technology itself offers opportunities that need to be grabbed and that could help those left behind benefit from the digital transformation. Platform work, for instance, can lower barriers to employment for some workers. The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind. And technologies like exoskeletons and smart wear can help increase the productivity of lower-skilled workers.

What can be done by employers, educators and policymakers to manage the transition to automation in new areas?

In the OECD Employment Outlook 2019 we analysed in detail how labour markets are changing, and what implications this has for policy in the areas of social protection, training, and how we regulate the labour market.

“The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind.”

We have evidence that transitions in the labour market are becoming more frequent and policy makers need to ensure that they help both firms and individuals manage these transitions as smoothly as possible. Adequate social protection is critical in this respect, because it helps people bridge these transitions, and prevents them from falling into poverty while they look for a new job. But in a world where non-standard forms of work, like temporary contracts and own-account work, are on the rise (at least in some countries), providing adequate social protection is not always easy, given that these forms of work have often been less well protected. A real challenge for policy makers is to think innovatively about how social protection might be extended to everyone, regardless of contract type.

Employers and workers also have an important role to play in making the transition to a new world of work as smooth as possible. Through effective social dialogue, they can jointly decide on what future they want. Nothing is inevitable about technology and its adoption. Together, employers and workers can choose what technologies get adopted, for what purpose, and what compensation and help might be available for those who are left behind.

What skills are required as some functions are automated and tech brings new possibilities? How might education systems and approaches to adult learning respond to this?

Training and adult learning are the other crucial ingredient needed to ensure that transitions are managed effectively. The new jobs that are emerging often require both different and higher skills than those that were needed in the jobs that are disappearing. Across OECD countries, we have observed a process of job polarisation – whereby the share of middle-skill jobs has been declining, while the share of high-skill jobs (and, to a lesser extent, the share of low-skill jobs) have been rising. Also, soft skills, those that are less likely to be automated by robots and AI, are becoming more and more important in the labour market.

“Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning.”

Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning. However, many of the workers who are most likely to be affected by the changes that are occurring in the labour market – the low-skilled and those in non-standard forms of work – are those least likely to participate in training. A forty percentage point gap exists between the high-skilled and the low-skilled in terms of participation in training.

The real challenge for policy makers and education systems is therefore to reach out to those individuals who have traditionally participated less in education and training. How can training be made attractive to them, and what barriers – financial or others – need to be overcome in order to ensure that all individuals, but especially those that have most to gain from it, participate in adult learning?

To find out more see the OECD Employment Outlook 2019.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.