Potential and pitfalls – will there be a working from home revolution?

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, around 5% of the UK working population worked from home most of the time (it is roughly the same in the US), and around three quarters had never worked from home. Now, almost everyone who is able to, is doing so all of the time. The transformation has been incredible in terms of scale and speed and there are numerous reports that it was actually easier than predicted, and has ushered in unexpected benefits.

Of course there are considerable financial savings available if ultimately less office space is required. Other benefits beyond not having to tolerate the cycling shorts being aired at the desk next to yours and pranks à la Tim from The Office include the ability to focus, greater productivity (in certain conditions), managerial focus on output rather than presenteeism and greater flexibility to support childcare (not, of course, as in the current situation where there is none). Avoiding the commute is another huge benefit, not only for the individual forced into moments of uncharacteristic aggression in order to squeeze their way onto a Central Line train or wasting hours staring at the back of the car in front, hoping to summon some supernatural force that might edge it forward, but also in terms of environmental benefits. A study has shown that taking into account increased usage at home, working from home reduces overall energy consumption. Longer-term these changes have the potential to ease some of the other challenges of high density living, not least the housing shortage.  The questions to be asked now are will home working continue post-COVID-19 crisis, what is at stake if the office is no more, and what is the right long-term approach to home-working.          

“nearly half were considering making remote work a permanent option”

A survey taken in early April 2020 found that 20 per cent of CFOs plan to make one in five previously on-site positions permanently remote post COVID-19, with three quarters saying one in twenty.  A different survey of CFOs globally showed that by mid-May, nearly half were considering making remote work a permanent option where feasible, with nearly three quarters saying the flexibility created by the current situation would prove useful to the business in the long run.  Only a third envisaged productivity loss over the next month because of a lack of remote work capabilities. Interestingly, this had decreased from 52 per cent when the same question was asked in late March which suggests that as equipment is being set up and new working systems established, productivity concerns are reducing. A number of high profile companies have announced their plans to enable more working from home post-virus including Facebook, Twitter, Barclays, Mondelez and Goldman Sachs. WPP have announced that one in ten people who used to come in to work in their China office are continuing to work remotely post-lockdown. So it seems clear that we should expect the number of home-workers to increase, perhaps significantly.

“For many, their social lives are at work with over half of people at work having at least one close friend there, indeed one in every five married couples met through work.”

However, there is plenty at stake. The corporate rental market and all the provisions such as gyms, restaurants and bars established to accommodate office workers could face serious challenges. From the business perspective, there will be concerns around the ability to keep track of progress, for workers to feel part of a team and motivated by this and to spot problems when they emerge. There is a potential loss of ideas that emerge through spontaneous and informal conversations. Individuals also have a lot to lose. For many, their social lives are at work with over half of people at work having at least one close friend there, indeed one in every five married couples met through work (though this number is declining). The importance of social interaction is well established, thus there is the potential for home working to lead to an increase in loneliness and depression beyond the pandemic. Another really significant challenge is addressing the inequalities that are accentuated by this way of working. Who is likely to do their best work sat in bed, surrounded by housemates, with constant family interruptions, with clunky internet or worse in an environment where they feel threatened or anxious? Young people, who have been worst hit employment-wise by the crisis are also likely to feel more negative effects from a work from home revolution. Mark Read, Chief Executive of marketing and advertising giant WPP has noted  “Junior employees and those in shared accommodation find homeworking much more difficult than senior executives with houses and gardens.” As well as the space issue, junior staff are likely to learn more from others around them in an office, be that understanding the appropriate phone manner or being able to ask the ‘silly question’ they may feel uncomfortable writing as an email. Another challenge is the long debated blurring of the work/ home divide and what this means when working from home. Will staff be able to switch off? A study has shown that though the ability to work from home is seen as a work benefit by employees, it can lead to “greater intrusion of work into family life and for added work-related stress”.

“Junior employees and those in shared accommodation find homeworking much more difficult than senior executives with houses and gardens.”

— Mark Read, CEO, WPP

“the benefits of working from home are much greater in those who have chosen to do so”

As the work from home recommendation is lifted, organisations will take their decisions on their new approach to working from home. The right response will depend on sector, location, size and demographic of employees, and will require a careful balancing act. Although work from home policies will vary across organisations, it seems that there are a few fundamentals that should be maintained.  There should be some regular face to face contact where feasible. Thorben Albrecht, a member of the ILO Global Commission for the Future of Work said in a recent interview that companies need to adjust their way of remote working after crisis, pointing to the importance of having face to face meetings. There should be an option to work at an office for those whose home conditions are not conducive to good work, for whatever reason, and no penalties for taking this option. Perhaps intuitively, but also supported by a Stanford study, the benefits of working from home are much greater in those who have chosen to do so.  Steps should be taken to ensure right equipment is made available - from the internet connection (in some areas this will need government support) to the desk and chair that do not necessitate trips to the chiropractor and the right security to ensure data protection compliance so that the company’s systems are not left vulnerable. Taking security seriously is one of the key recommendations of a McKinsey report reflecting on lessons learnt in China. 

There are numerous benefits to individuals, companies and society available by increasing remote working, but it is important that a considered approach is taken to avoid some of the pitfalls.   

Interview with Ksenia Zheltoukhova, Director of Research Operations, NESTA

Ksenia is Director of Research Operations at NESTA, a non profit innovation foundation. Previously she led on Research and Thought Leadership at CIPD.

Here she discusses how labour markets are likely to develop, preparedness to reskill and the consequences of the coronavirus on working patterns.

What types of jobs are at risk because of automation?

The past few years have seen both excitement about the jobs created by the advances in technology, as well as a growing fear of job loss for many. Nesta research shows that automation is more likely to radically change what people do in jobs rather than replace work completely.

Our Future of Skills research predicts that around one-tenth of the workforce are in occupations that are likely to grow as a percentage of the workforce and around one-fifth are in occupations that will likely shrink.  

“Education, healthcare, and wider public sector occupations are likely to grow.”

Education, healthcare, and wider public sector occupations are likely to grow while some low-skilled jobs, in fields like construction and agriculture, are less likely to suffer poor labour market outcomes than has been assumed in the past. Workers at risk of automation specifically include waiters and waitresses, shelf fillers, retail sales staff, farm workers and cleaners.    

What can be done to support those who need to reskill as more functions are automated and what types of opportunities are opening up?

Raising awareness of the need to reskill is critical: Nesta’s survey shows that two in three workers (68%) believe it is unlikely that their current job role will be automated in the next 10 years.  

The quality of career information, advice and guidance should be improved: career advisors should use data-driven insights to match individuals’ skills with work opportunities, and point people to jobs less susceptible to automation.

“People in low-paid work often don’t have the time, motivation or money to undertake training.”

People should be supported to keep learning: Nesta’s review of evidence shows that people in low-paid work often don’t have the time, motivation or money to undertake training. Learning providers should take into account barriers to learning and an understanding of people’s motivations to learn, and personalise learning content and delivery.    

How can young people be best prepared for a world of work that is constantly changing?  

“Strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises.”

Strong social skills will be the key to success as demand for uniquely human skills rises. The skills forecast to be in higher future demand include social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgment, and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality, and oral expression are forecast to increase in demand.  

We have developed a sample of Six Jobs for 2030 as a flavour of the types of skills that will be in demand.

Responses to the coronavirus pandemic have caused significant disruption to working practices in the UK, with those that are able to, working from home, and many not able to work at all. What might the long term impact of this be?

Some have speculated that the pandemic will lead to permanent changes in working patterns, with working from home, and flexible working more broadly, becoming more of a norm in businesses that haven’t adopted this yet.  

“The pandemic is deepening the consequences of social and economic inequality.”

But, the pandemic is deepening the consequences of social and economic inequality. While many highly-skilled employees have the opportunity to work remotely or from home, many low-skilled employees do not have this option. This will impact individuals’ ability to hold on to their jobs, as well as creating more negative effects for sectors and regions that have higher proportion of roles that can’t be delivered from home.

 

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Interview with Thorben Albrecht, Member, ILO Global Commission for the Future of Work

Thorben Albrecht is an expert on the future of work and digital transformation and has been a member of the International Labour Organization’s Global Commission on the Future of Work since 2017. He has been Permanent State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Germany and Federal Manager Social Democratic Party of Germany.

Here he discusses remote working trends and best approaches.

“ remote work is now being introduced in a time of crisis and in a very extreme form with no personal meetings possible whatsoever. This could well have the opposite effect after the crisis if companies do not adjust their “way of remote work” to a more intelligent, human and flexible style.”

What trends have been driving the move toward more working from home over the past 10 years?  

New and advanced technologies have made this trend possible, but the main drivers have been new flexibility-needs concerning time and place of both employers and employees. Other aspects like the reduction of the time and pollution of commuting or handling restructuring have been adding to this.     

What impact does remote working have on productivity?  

There is no general positive or negative effect on productivity. Productivity can be increased when remote work is applied in an intelligent way. It should not be substituting but complementing work with face-to-face-exchange. Distraction and stress should be reduced and the well-being of employees increased compared to in-office-work (but this is not always the case). Only then productivity-gains are possible.    

To what extent do you expect the way people are forced to work during the coronavirus pandemic to have long lasting effects?  

I hope that reservations against remote work are reduced where they still exist with employers and employees. And that investments into technology are done and still used after the situation is back to normal. But at the same time, remote work is now being introduced in a time of crisis and in a very extreme form with no personal meetings possible whatsoever. This could well have the opposite effect after the crisis if companies do not adjust their "way of remote work" to a more intelligent, human and flexible style.    

Is there an inbuilt inequality in a drive to work from home, as not everyone has a quiet, stress free home with sufficient broadband provision and space to work?  How does this weigh up against enabling a more diversified workforce through greater flexibility?  

The flexibility-needs of employers are not always in line with those of employees. And between employees the needs and possibilities are also very diverse. Thus only models of remote work that align the different needs through mechanisms of negotiations and compromise will be successful and increase diversity without increasing inequalities.    

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Interview with Emma Colbeck, Co-founder, Playground

Emma Colbeck is co-founder, with Jess Knowles, of Playground, an environmentally conscious streetwear brand for adults and children. She has 15 years’ experience in media and branding for fashion and lifestyle titles from Hearst Magazines to The Guardian.

Here she discusses what motivated her to start her own business, its values and learning along the way.

What gave you the incentive to start your own business? 

“I wanted to create something I love, for myself, but also to set an example to the children.”

Having my first child broke the cycle of full time work, which gave me the incentive to consider an alternative. The obvious benefit of working for yourself with young children is that you can have the flexibility to be around for them when needed. I started developing ideas and skills that would help me set up my own business, then after my second child was old enough to go to nursery, I went ahead. I had found a business partner with children of a similar age and complementary experience and we were both excited about the idea of Playground.

We felt there was a lack of exciting brands aimed at parents. It was as if once you had children, clothes were meant to be more practical than stylish. Of course, we dressed more casually on the playground than in the office, so this is where the idea of streetwear for parents and children emerged. This is Playground.

I wanted to create something I love, for myself, but also to set an example to the children. It is risky, but possibilities open up when you have your own business. I will really own my achievements, in a way not possible working for someone else. Long term, there is also the possibility to make more money than from the incremental rise of full time work.

What personality traits does starting your own business draw on? 

You need to be decisive and confident in your decision making. I have also found it necessary to wear lots of different hats. You flip between numerous roles within the business all the time. You need to be good at planning and agile enough to work across the roles, from creative, to accounts, to marketing. It is also important to be strategic and have a yearly plan.

Did you feel you had the right skills to set up a business or where did you go to boost them?   

“You need to be decisive and confident in your decision making. ”

My background was in project management where I picked up a lot of the skills necessary to start a business. However, there were many I have had to learn, and am still learning. Before starting my own business, I did a Digital Marketing course at General Assembly (which now I have started my business, feel I need to redo!) and I did a six months hands-on training in Social Media Strategy and Management with Digital Mums. General Assembly specialize in upskilling people in their current roles, or those looking to make career transitions. They focus on skills that are really in demand such as tech, data, design and business. Digital Mums provides career-focused courses in social media management to women on maternity leave, aimed at leading on to more flexible roles.

How important is sustainability to your business? 

“Sustainability is at the core of our business. Every decision we make, we consider sustainability.”

Sustainability is at the core of our business. Every decision we make, we consider sustainability. We only work with organic cotton and are careful with every aspect of the product, even how they are packaged; recycled paper is used in everything from the tissue paper to the mailers and even the tape. All our product materials are as sustainable as the market allows. We do this because it is increasingly important for our customers and as it is the right thing to do, especially with our children in mind. We are looking of ways to tap into reuse as well. All our shipping is carbon neutral. Sustainability is an area we constantly strive to improve within the business. 

What is the next big challenge for Playground?

We have had a fantastic response to our launch in late 2019. It feels like there is a real buzz and we have been thrilled with the press coverage, which includes being featured in The Times, the Evening Standard Magazine and Grazia. The next biggest challenge, however, is converting this brand awareness into increased sales.

To find out more see the Playground website.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Photography by Buzz White.

Interview with Stijn Broecke, Head of the OECD's Future of Work Initiative and Senior Economist

Stijn Broecke is a senior economist in the Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Directorate of the OECD, where he leads the organisation’s Future of Work Initiative. He was co-editor and co-author of the OECD Employment Outlook 2019, which focused on the Future of Work. Stijn holds a PhD in the Economics of Education from the University of London and an MPhil from the University of Cambridge.

Here he discusses how technology is changing the world of work and what employers, educators and policymakers can do to manage the transition to automation in new areas.

How are do you see technology and digitalisation changing the world of work?

“The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc...”

The world of work has always changed as a result of technological developments. Ever since the invention of the wheel, the steam engine, electricity, computers, etc. technology has changed what tasks and jobs people do, who carries them out, what skills are required, how well people are remunerated, and the quality of jobs.

At the present moment, digitalisation is profoundly changing the world of work. Robots and other related technologies have already had an important impact on the labour market and, with the advent of newer technologies, like Artificial Intelligence (AI), these trends are expected to continue, although the exact nature of the impact might be different from what happened under previous technological revolutions.

At the OECD, we have estimated that 14% of jobs in OECD countries are at high risk of automation, and that another third of jobs will undergo significant change as a large share of the tasks involved will be automated as well. At the same time, technologies create new jobs and also boost productivity. On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.

New technologies have also enabled the rise of the platform economy, and the emergence of new business models and forms of work. Some of these have enabled individuals and businesses to tap into new sources of flexibility. However, there are also important concerns around job quality in some of these occupations.

How will the changing nature of work impact society? Will it benefit the already wealthy more than the less well off? How should we use technology to drive the changes we want and avoid undesired consequences?

“On balance, the impact on the overall number of jobs is unlikely to be negative.”

While the OECD does not expect the overall number of jobs to decline dramatically in the short-run, there will be important transitions to undergo as jobs disappear in some sectors and occupations, while new ones appear elsewhere.

This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others. At the same time, many of the new jobs are likely to benefit the high-skilled and those living in urban areas.

“This will have important distributional consequences, as the changes will not affect everyone equally. The OECD estimates show that the young and the low-skilled, as well as people living in certain regions, will be more affected than others.”

If we do not help those who lose out from digitalisation grab the opportunities that arise, then we risk seeing widening disparities in the labour market, and in society more widely.

Of course, technology itself offers opportunities that need to be grabbed and that could help those left behind benefit from the digital transformation. Platform work, for instance, can lower barriers to employment for some workers. The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind. And technologies like exoskeletons and smart wear can help increase the productivity of lower-skilled workers.

What can be done by employers, educators and policymakers to manage the transition to automation in new areas?

In the OECD Employment Outlook 2019 we analysed in detail how labour markets are changing, and what implications this has for policy in the areas of social protection, training, and how we regulate the labour market.

“The possibilities of working remotely could create new jobs in regions that are left behind.”

We have evidence that transitions in the labour market are becoming more frequent and policy makers need to ensure that they help both firms and individuals manage these transitions as smoothly as possible. Adequate social protection is critical in this respect, because it helps people bridge these transitions, and prevents them from falling into poverty while they look for a new job. But in a world where non-standard forms of work, like temporary contracts and own-account work, are on the rise (at least in some countries), providing adequate social protection is not always easy, given that these forms of work have often been less well protected. A real challenge for policy makers is to think innovatively about how social protection might be extended to everyone, regardless of contract type.

Employers and workers also have an important role to play in making the transition to a new world of work as smooth as possible. Through effective social dialogue, they can jointly decide on what future they want. Nothing is inevitable about technology and its adoption. Together, employers and workers can choose what technologies get adopted, for what purpose, and what compensation and help might be available for those who are left behind.

What skills are required as some functions are automated and tech brings new possibilities? How might education systems and approaches to adult learning respond to this?

Training and adult learning are the other crucial ingredient needed to ensure that transitions are managed effectively. The new jobs that are emerging often require both different and higher skills than those that were needed in the jobs that are disappearing. Across OECD countries, we have observed a process of job polarisation – whereby the share of middle-skill jobs has been declining, while the share of high-skill jobs (and, to a lesser extent, the share of low-skill jobs) have been rising. Also, soft skills, those that are less likely to be automated by robots and AI, are becoming more and more important in the labour market.

“Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning.”

Changing skills needs, more frequent labour market transitions, and longer working lives together mean that individuals will have to engage more than ever in lifelong learning. However, many of the workers who are most likely to be affected by the changes that are occurring in the labour market – the low-skilled and those in non-standard forms of work – are those least likely to participate in training. A forty percentage point gap exists between the high-skilled and the low-skilled in terms of participation in training.

The real challenge for policy makers and education systems is therefore to reach out to those individuals who have traditionally participated less in education and training. How can training be made attractive to them, and what barriers – financial or others – need to be overcome in order to ensure that all individuals, but especially those that have most to gain from it, participate in adult learning?

To find out more see the OECD Employment Outlook 2019.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill.

Interview with Pamela Watson, Author, Gibbous Moon Over Lagos, and Strategic Adviser to Smart Ventures in Africa

In 1992-94 Pamela cycled alone and unsupported for 14,500km over 18 months from Senegal to Tanzania. Following more time spent in Africa, in 2002 Pamela founded her own strategy consulting business in Lagos and two years later a social enterprise alongside. In 2005 she was appointed Honorary Consul for Australia in Lagos. In 2009 she left Lagos and returned to London where she continues to work as a strategy consultant and regularly visits Lagos.

Pamela has a forthcoming book, Gibbous Moon Over Lagos, which will be released in February 2020.

What led you to entrepreneurship and which characteristics do you feel entrepreneurs benefit from?

It was a long and winding road that took me to Lagos. I had been a strategy consultant, originally in Australia, then at some of the larger international firms here in the UK. I always had a hankering for Africa - and later I felt like I could be myself there. This hankering for Africa was what lead me to the UK in the 1980s – in search of taking my strategy consulting skills there.

Africa was not a place for private sector management consulting in the 80s or really even in the 90s. It was democratising and coming out of the cold war era. Enterprise of all types had been nationalised. I originally took my strategy expertise into privatisation work but in those early post-cold war days, it was a game of politics between the recipient government and the donor government. The countries had to have a democratic election and to privatise a certain number of state-owned companies in order to be able to get access to a donor loan. The donor put pressure on our teams when we suggested that privatisation was not necessarily the model that would bring the most benefits to the country. I was frustrated that the impact was not authentic, that it was a political game. It didn’t suit me to play it.

Also, I was working alongside people in the aid community, who I discovered have very long time spans, of 10 or 20 years to get change and impact. I admired their tenacity but that was when I knew I was a private sector person; I like getting things done - within five years or next year.

In fact, I learned through my adventures and these early work experiences in Africa that I have the disposition of an entrepreneur.

I take risks. I like to have control over my destiny. I am a bit of a stubborn person and I don’t like being told what to do. I like the unpredictability of not knowing how the day will end which, for me, is what a true adventure is about. These are the characteristics I recognise in other entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship delivers this in spades.

For me though, it is not all about wealth. Indeed, I probably could have been a lot wealthier if I had stuck with the corporate path and become a partner in a large corporate practice.

So, in the mid 90s, following my solo bicycle ride across Africa, I realised I wanted to have a business and a life in Africa. Like most people, I was a bit nervous about Nigeria and I actually first went to Ghana in 1997 to set up a consultancy practice - but its private sector was too small.

Eventually, in 1999, I went to Lagos, Nigeria and joined Accenture locally to make a contribution, earn a living, have fun and to understand the market. I probably would have stayed with them, however, it became clear that the head practice partner assumed that I would leave if my partner (another expat) was transferred out of Nigeria. Despite me expressing that I intended to stay even if he did go, my progression was blocked. Realising the limitations, I went out on my own. A few years after that, my partner was transferred out of Nigeria, and having already established my own businesses, I stayed.

It was a very different environment after my partner left, and I don’t think I really understood how different it was going to be. He was an oil and gas executive, so was sent out on an expat package, he had housing, cars and we had a staff of 12-16 people (mainly guards, but also domestic staff). After that was all taken away, just finding housing was a challenge.

It is my experiences during this period that are the focus of my new book; it really was a new challenging adventure for me. And yet, Nigerian entrepreneurs face these challenges every day, to this day.

I was exposed to having to sort out the myriad daily problems – and there are always a lot of those -by myself without the big support staff in my previous expat lifestyle. Nigeria trumpets that it has moved up 16 places on the World Bank’s ease of doing business index since 2015 or 16, but it is still pretty low. When I was there it was very near the bottom; it is very hard to do business there.

First, I set up a consultancy practice (where I made money), and later a social enterprise (where I spent money).

The social enterprise was concerned with recycling; we made handmade paper out of recycled office material and plants and then turned them into cards and calendars for the domestic corporate and souvenirs markets. Already it was clear that urbanisation was happening and there had not been policy attention by governments or the aid world to the numbers of under-skilled individuals that needed jobs. I had been involved in different approaches to aid to Africa, so am aware of the pitfalls as well as the need. In the mid 2000s, urbanisation and environmental and employment issues were not being addressed - at all. My social enterprise was a drop in the ocean, but to me it was something I could do to improve the environment and work opportunities.

The social enterprise and the consultancy were run alongside each other; in retrospect a mistake. In a complex and challenging environment trying to run two businesses in parallel – on a small scale - was a big ask of myself and my teams.

Could you talk more about the business climate in Lagos and how this has changed since the time you were setting up your business there to now.

I continue to go to Nigeria quite frequently so have marked the changes.

Despite recent diversification attempts, Nigeria remains an oil dependent economy, and so it follows a different cycle to other African countries that are not. That said, there are some elements to the business climate that are familiar.

For example, democratisation and particularly the introduction of the mobile telecommunications industry in the early 2000s completely transformed the business landscape in Lagos and Nigeria – and elsewhere in Africa.

It was a very exciting development in Nigeria as before there were only around 10,000 fixed phone lines, which really meant that you never had an operating phone line. The only way people got an operating phone line was to send a driver to the local NEPA (then the Nigerian Electricity Power Authority, also known as Never Expect Power Always) office to complain, and offer dash. That basically meant the NEPA technician would take one line out and put yours back in. You would then get a line for a day, until somebody else went to the NEPA office to have it reversed. So, most of the time, people could not phone others: we sent a driver with a note.

Within one year it went from this to most staff and clients and suppliers having mobile phones. Everybody in the city had them, including domestic staff, drivers, gardeners, tailors and painters. People were suddenly in touch, could organise work to be contracted more easily, and business took off as a result.

It reduced the number of cars on the road, too.

This created a lot of excitement about the potential of the economy and everybody was saying: “If only we could do the same to power.” With power and telecommunications, the potential of the Nigerian economy and dynamic Nigerians would be unleashed.

However, in 2019, Nigerians are still waiting for power to be transformed, and for access to cheap 24/7 power to unleash the economy.

From about 2006-2014, the wider world increasingly began to recognise that Nigeria was changing and open for business. The diaspora returned and foreign direct investment increased. However, I would say that since 2008 the federal political leadership - from both major parties that have been in power - has been more dysfunctional and unhelpful than helpful. The oil price crash in 2015 ended the good days of plentiful money and investment.

The Buhari government, now in its second term, might have well-intentioned policies but they are re-tread socialist policies of the 1980s, already proven to be economically damaging and unsurprisingly delivering the same result now. Their zeal for protectionism to help an agricultural sector grow is admirable. But their method - closing their land borders to stop food importation and smuggling - has been immensely damaging to manufacturing and trade and has sent food prices skyrocketing. In 2019, GDP growth is sluggish around 2%pa not keeping up with a population growth of over 4%pa. Inflation rates are nearly 12%pa and unemployment is staggering at well over 50%; this is a recipe for instability and unrest.

That said, Lagos has had somewhat better political leadership delivering policy reform and investor confidence in selective sectors. There are limits to what can be achieved against an unhelpful federal political backdrop and infrastructure creaking with rapid population growth. But increasingly, Lagos is seen as a city-state much more friendly to entrepreneurs than other parts of the country.

In 2019, there are business opportunities in Lagos, but in selected industries. The bright spots at the moment are in media, technology, financial services and telecommunications. Nigerians are amazingly creative, so the movie industry is really flourishing. Fintech and mobile related payment services are doing well. Microsoft has just invested in an Africa Development Centre in Lagos. The closure of the land borders has less impact on the services industries. Despite what I see as counterproductive economic policies at the federal level, Nigerians are creating businesses and livelihoods in non-oil sectors. This is encouraging.

Foreigners too should be active in Lagos now, certainly in the growth sectors, but in others too. Taking time now to create relationships, understand the business environment and to invest, will position them for the economic upturn once it comes.

How have you seen levels of corruption change in Nigeria?

Despite the growth of corruption under the stewardship of various military regimes, it was unfortunate that the levels of corruption actually got worse – in my view - with the introduction of a presidential system of government in 1999.  The democratic constitution brought in a presidency, a federal house of representatives and a federal senate; plus 36 states with a governor for each state and a house of representatives for each state; and then over 1000 local governments. Many more touchpoints for corruption were created than under the military regime where you basically had the head of state – a general - and his cronies.

In a sad way, one could say there is more “equality” of corruption now: it is everywhere and touches everyone in every walk of life and so many basic transactions - attempts to get something done, to be paid for services rendered, to get a licence, to pay your taxes, to improve things.

The current government is trying to claw back the corruption, but it is hard because things continue to be plagued by cronyism and vested interests. There are also many observers who assert that those who get convicted for corruption and sent to jail tend to be from the opposition. Not that turning a blind eye to corruption amongst one’s political allies is something unique to Nigeria.

For now, in Nigeria, the reality for businesspeople is that all activity and relationships can be impacted by corruption, and entrepreneurs are frequently confronted with ethical choices. Choosing the moral high road has consequences, and so does the reverse. Everyone must make their choice of which line to cross and which not, in large and small transactions. It is not impossible to be ‘clean’ every day in every way but doing so will have consequences for your business’s growth path and profitability.

At least there is a sensitivity now to corruption and a conversation about it, so I hope things will improve, but it will take individual courage, better leadership at all levels and time.

As an outsider, do you find yourself more vulnerable to requests as you don’t have the protection of a larger company, or are you more likely to be left alone?

I don’t think an outsider’s vulnerability to corruption is a matter of scale; it is still a matter of personal choice.

You need to go in understanding that corruption is in the environment and to have worked out how you as an individual or an enterprise are going to deal with it. Scale helps as you need more resources and time upfront to understand it, plan your stance and policies to cope, and to invest in training and controls, but the process is the same.

Corruption and fraud will impact every scale of business in many more ways than you can imagine. It is not just the government contract or the policeman who is going to ask you for dash. It is imperative you do due diligence to find the right trusted partnerships. Identify individuals you can trust and those who can help you check and cross check others. Bayo Adaralegbe, a Nigerian lawyer I spoke to recently, recommended doing due diligence investigations, not just your business partner but your customers, your staff, your suppliers, right through to your domestic staff.

In Nigeria, there is an adage to ‘never take anything at face value’. One should always be sensitive to the fact that whatever seems to be going on, there is always another angle. For example, one should expect that somebody may have a vested interest behind the scenes that might explain motivations and situations. As a result, the more sources that can be checked the better;  it will provide more insight into what is actually going on and facilitate making the right partnerships.

An entrepreneur needs a really good reliable and experienced lawyer and accountant who will each help with due diligence investigations and with putting in place the policies, processes and auditing trails to help control the business from the outset. Once you lose control of your business, you won’t get it back.

It puts a lot of pressure on the entrepreneur to start out as he or she wishes to go on – which has both ethical and financial consequences.

I have an antenna for corruption that I did not have before. I spot it in the UK, I spot it in a lot of situations. I was very naïve about it when I went to Nigeria. It exists in human relationships where people are trying to get an advantage. In a place like Nigeria where the system is very corrupt, for every individual trying to get their kid into a school, they are going to be facing somebody who is basically, though possibly not overtly, putting up barriers. To vote is difficult. To get exam results a challenge. It has recently been exposed that there is a culture of sexual favours in the universities for women to be able to be awarded their hard-earned grades or results.

It is horrible, and it makes one very conscious of ethics.

Ethics is very abstract in our world. In Nigeria, you really have to know your lines in the sand. For example, personally, I will not pay dash to a policeman. When they ask me “What have you got for me?”, I reply “My best wishes to you and your family”. But each person makes his or her own choice, and that choice is driven by the situation.

Unfortunately, in Nigeria the law is not free of corruption. To get a case lodged the court clerks may want payment from a lawyer. This is shocking, but if the lawyer does not pay then their case may not commence. Some lawyers make the decision that they will do this, but then draw the line at paying the judge.

When I was Honorary Consul for Australia in Nigeria, I met some shifty Australian individuals who I suspected thought that they could get things done in Nigeria by nefarious means. I suspect some got away with it, others got their tail whipped; it was their choice, but it is not a choice I could advise.

In the current environment, with the UK Bribery Act and the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, no UK or US  company can afford to engage in any of these practices.

For any legitimate company operating honestly in Nigeria, this must be made clear to company employees. If any unethical behaviour is discovered, there must be consequences. There must be auditing and tracking, and training and whistle blower policies in place. People become proud that they are working for a company that is part of the changing Nigeria because everybody laments the state of things, but no one individual can change it.

The country’s leadership are taking some action, but it is uneven in application and coverage and will take time. Every company that comes in and takes this tough but clean ethical line is part of the solution.

Your current role involves working with companies, social enterprises and NGOs wishing to set up in Africa, what are the key pieces of information you think organisations need to consider?

It will take much longer to plan and establish a successful enterprise in Africa than an inward investor in for-profit or social enterprise activities can imagine. It will need possibly triple the planned investment to cover delays and unexpected costs, and commitments for the long haul. There will be setbacks and without commitment an investor will exit early.

Companies take on the challenges and risks as there is great potential.

The population of Lagos is currently around 20 million. The Nigerian economy is still touted as the largest GDP in Africa despite the oil price drops and poor economic policy.

By the end of the century Nigeria is forecast to be the 4th or 5th largest country by population in the world. It is already huge and becoming more so. What happens in Nigeria affects the other countries in Africa. Lagos is growing not just because other Nigerians are moving there, but because other Africans are. They recognise that it has the momentum to become one of the megacities driving African economic growth.

Some who are in Africa, avoid Nigeria because they are cautious. It is right to be cautious and to learn from others who have gone before. High reward comes to those who take on risk, and I would suggest entrepreneurs take a measured look at Lagos and Nigeria as a long term stake in Africa’s future.

How did you find establishing your business over here, having done it over there?

Honestly, it felt like a piece of cake; bank accounts, loans, tax regimes are so much easier here. Although the paperwork can be heavy, at least it is predictable. That said, things still go wrong here. The number of times I pull my hair out as my day has been derailed - something going wrong or someone letting me down, and then I tell someone in Lagos, who says, “Wow, I thought that only happened here”.

How do you feel that gender has played a role through your career?

I am of an age that I experienced “Me Too” incidents and they were shocking and humiliating, and they made me make some of the choices I did. I decided to get out of places rather than put up with stuff. So, I am really pleased that the world is different now.

It feels like there is zero tolerance in our environment here, but I don’t think it is the same in Nigeria where patriarchy continues. Nigerian women are very strong but encounter these incidents every day.

On the other hand (and I may be wrong), I don’t think they suffer from the same baggage as Western women, in particular the notion that women need to nurture and be kind, that if they are an independent woman with a brain they are considered aggressive, that anytime they bark at somebody they have a character defect. In my experience, there seems less expectation that a Nigerian woman is soft and nurturing - but they have other expectations placed on them.

Nigerian women are assertive, educated and strong yet women are still not represented enough in positions of real power in government or business. A recent McKinsey study has shown that Africa is leading the way in terms of the number of women on boards – at 25% versus 23% in Europe – but this is due to higher representation in South Africa and in a few other countries, but not in Nigeria. Also, these women are largely not in the roles that are the usual pathways to becoming Managing Director.

Will there be change soon? Nigerian women and African women have a much greater tradition of working together (than Western women), and this is powerful for getting change done. It makes me  optimistic about the role they will play in shaping their country’s political and economic future.

How do you see the demographics of entrepreneurship changing?

I think the pathway to entrepreneurship is opening up so that for young people it can be the path they start out on, rather than something they move to. Also, back in the day if you hadn’t started your own business by the time you were 40, you were seen as not having the right stuff for it, that you did not have the right attitude to risk. Now, when people are starting up, they often do it as a side hustle. I think this 40 age barrier has gone. It is more open to everybody.

When I started out as a strategy consultant, people did not really know what my profession was. And it was for freshly minted MBA graduates. Later, management consultancy became more mainstream, especially when mid to late career professionals, joined the field. In the same way, I think people will embrace entrepreneurship in mid-career or even in what would have been their retirement years. They may move into offering access to their expertise or try out a life they always wished they had.

Women have embraced entrepreneurialism for many reasons – some are escaping still patriarchal work environments or glass ceilings, or are creating work environments on their own terms, or for the apparent control it gives over their daily schedule. I am sure this will continue.

Entrepreneurialism is also being sold to young Africans, partly because there are so many opportunities opening up – especially due to technology - and partly because there are not enough jobs for them. Being an entrepreneur in Africa is still not for the faint-hearted and perhaps not the panacea it is being touted as. I would like to see more focus on supporting enterprises scale up as then they are more sustainable and create jobs, and because not everybody is cut out to be an entrepreneur.

The 54 African nations are at different stages, but each is intent on building its independent economic future.

Lagos and Nigeria have the potential to be the economic powerhouse of Africa, and small and large-scale entrepreneurship will play a big role. It will be exciting to see how it unfolds and to be part of making it happen.

Interview conducted by Amy Wevill. Photographs courtesy of Pamela Watson.

Overview

Taking a snapshot of the world of work today and discovering how it is likely to develop over the next decade. As we navigate through this time of continued technological change, opportunities for higher productivity, more fulfilling jobs and greater flexibility are emerging. However, there is also some scepticism of disruptive technology, and potential negative threats to society and the work force, particularly in the short term.

This series will include insights from industry leaders, founders, technology companies and policymakers across a range of sectors and hear from experts on the broader trends. It will examine the latest trends in labour markets and attitudes to work, consider the impact AI is having on jobs, and assess what skills, tools and outlooks will best equip us for the coming shifts.

Themes will include:

• How are attitudes to work changing? What motivates people in their work? Is there now a demand for greater flexibility? Is entrepreneurship growing?

• What types of technology are already available that have the potential to dramatically change the workplace and how might these develop?

• How will the changing nature of work impact society? Will it benefit the wealthy more than the poor? How do these developments vary internationally? How should we use technology to drive the changes we want and avoid undesired consequences?

• What skills are required as more functions are automated, entrepreneurship is on the rise and tech brings new possibilities? How might education systems and approaches to adult learning respond to this?

If you are interested in working with us to develop a report or events series on this topic, please be in touch at amy@awresearch.co.uk